Russian President Vladimir Putin has spent decades plotting in secret and pretending friendship with U.S. and European leaders to carry out his threat of crushing, no, decimating, the West because he holds them responsible for the destruction of the Soviet Union. Tit for tat. Quid pro quo. Putin, like Napoléon, is waging a war of conquest to reshape Europe's borders. Napoleon's misguided ideological adventure lost France one million souls in retreat, tarnishing his leadership credibility. Whereas Hitler also suffered the same fate with his ideologically driven folly with 'Operation Barbarossa' when three million men crossed the Russian border on June 22, 1941, suffering insurmountable losses and paving the way to ultimate defeat. In a like-minded approach, Putin's invasion of Ukraine is the climax of his aim to reconstruct an empire that once vastly spanned Ukraine, Germany, Belarus, and the Baltics.
Since President Yeltsin's liver failure opened the door, Vladamir Putin, a former East German Stasi agent, has worked tirelessly to reverse the Cold War's outcome over the course of his 22 years as head of Russia. He has done this by restoring Russia's status as a significant global power, securing the Kremlin's control over the remaining Soviet Union, and limiting the influence of the United States and NATO. The goal of Putin's plan is to disenfranchise the European Union from the outset and sow discord inside the NATO Alliance, a method that the Soviet KGB employed.
The distinctive and highly valuable geology of Russia has been a crucial tool in achieving these objectives. Natural gas and oil are abundant throughout Russia's huge landmass, which spans 11 time-zones and extends from the Baltic Sea in the west to the Pacific Ocean in the east. Moscow produces and exports such massive quantities of these resources that Russia is currently the world's largest gas exporter and the second-largest oil exporter, behind only the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. The international intelligence community predicted that once Putin was flush with Chinese money, Putin's move into Crimea in 2014 was inevitable when he signed the agreement for the eagerly anticipated gas pipeline from Eastern Siberia, south across the Mongolian steps into northern China, fueled by what China forward financed.
As much as 40–50% of the Russian government's budget and 30% of the Russian GDP come from the sale of energy resources abroad, making Russia an energy superpower and providing the actual foundation for the current Russian state and all of Putin's ambitions, including the continuing conflict in the Ukraine. Roughly 75% of their natural gas and half of their oil exports head west toward Europe. Overall, Russia provides over 35% of the European Union's natural gas and one quarter of its oil. Considering that oil accounts for over a third of Europe's energy consumption and natural gas for another quarter, this indicates that Europe depends on Russian oil and gas for around 1/5th of its energy demands while Russia relies on European currency for nearly 1/3rd of their government budget. This is Russia's greatest strength and its greatest weakness. The ever-evolving geopolitical calculus of this strength and weakness has defined every aggressive action that Putin's Russia has recently taken, including the current conflict in Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea, the invasion of Georgia, and the false-flag conquest of Chechnya.
Through a nefarious partnership with Saudi Arabia's self-imposed Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, he is enhancing his power by combining riches and power through energy supplies into a captive market. Pipelines are set up through BRICS-controlled countries to weaken the U.S. and European post-war power structure. The weaponization of energy logistics via oil and gas controls and management of transportation routes equals domination on a global scale. With the recent admission of Saudi Arabia—and why wouldn't they be let in?—this economic bloc will become a global juggernaut whose members are unified in their spurious loathing of the West and, in particular, the United States. There is a lack of fear for the U.S. and Europe, an almost mocking posture. Rather than not taking them seriously and focusing solely on Ukraine—look here, not there—the West must scan the horizon and secure oil supply and transportation lines because, as history has repeatedly demonstrated, whoever controls energy wins the war. Yes, this is a declaration of war by a cabal of global-shifting proportions. The BRICS' shadow economy is now integrated with China, Russia, and oil-rich Saudi Arabia.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has had far-reaching consequences, including the disruption of European stability and the challenge it poses to the liberal global order. The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) group has recently strengthened in response to the situation in Ukraine, which, if not resolved quickly and successfully, could disrupt the current balance of power dominated by the West. If the United States is serious about ensuring future security in the face of escalating authoritarian regimes like China and Russia, it must recognize and offer a compelling alternative to the rising power of the BRICS. These choices are very similar to how the United States rebuilt post-war Europe by helping war-devastated communities with persistence, faith, hope, and generosity.
Since the BRICS nations are an established and formidable economic alliance, greater cooperation between them should cause major concern in the Western Alliance. The BRICS countries currently account for 40% of the world's population, 30% of its geographical area, 18% of its total trade volume, and 25% of the global nominal GDP. China and Russia have indicated an active interest in the coalition's growth. Iran has requested to join the group, and China has asked Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Thailand to do the same. Given their collective economic weight, the West has reason to be concerned about the prospect of these countries joining BRICS. Most specifically, the recent invite to Saudi Arabia should be of major concern to the U.S. I recommend that the Western Alliance establish a reputable contingent of multiple ambassador plenipotentiaries armed with the capacity for positive change. The delegation should be fueled by public/private enterprise programs that deploy massive advances in economic and geopolitical enhancements and long-term social prosperity initiatives.
As a result of the conflict in Ukraine and the multi-nation sanctions levied on Russia, the BRICS states have increasingly huddled closer in recent months. Vladimir Putin claims commerce with the other BRICS nations has grown since declaring war on Ukraine. According to Putin, interaction with the world's four fastest-growing significant economies in the first quarter of 2022 surged by 38 percent. The conflict has not only improved trade between countries but also seems to be easing tensions between them. For instance, cross-Himalayan border tensions have decreased this year as China and India have bolstered their relations with Russia. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has strengthened connections among the BRICS states, leading to a corresponding rise in their sway over emerging economies.
The crisis in Ukraine and Western sanctions against Russia have provided Russia and China with an opening to expand their spheres of influence in the Global South. While spreading anti-Western disinformation and propaganda across Africa north and south, these two countries have promoted BRICS as a potent emerging market alternative to the West. A greater number of developing nations have been less willing to support the U.S. and Europe's criticism of Russia, as evidenced by the abstention of Latin American, South American, Caribbean, and African governments in the U.N. vote condemning Russia's invasion. Countries in the Global South are losing faith in the West as the US continues to disregard developing resource-rich states like those in Southeast Asia's Horseshoe, which has recently emerged as the focal point of Indo-Pacific security problems. They have, however, attracted the attention of the BRICS nations, particularly China, inspiring it to forward invest in securing their hegemony.
The United States must see the broader, global implications of the war in Ukraine if they are to take steps to limit the increasing power of BRICS. To save the liberal international post-war order against authoritarian nations like Russia and China, the West must look beyond itself and see the more comprehensive picture. Yet, many in Europe and the United States are only concerned with the impact on themselves using the contemporary "NIMBY" dogma. Moreover, Russia has them in a bind over the energy crisis orchestrated by his control of European oil and gas pipeline networks. The U.S. must obtain storage leases in Mediterranean Sea transport areas to bolster the countries that control the Mediterranean economies. During the apartheid era, when South Africa was trying to secure sufficient oil supplies in the face of U.N. sanctions, the country built the Saldanha Bay storage facility, which is now one of the largest in the world. Saldanha Bay is a crucial distribution hub between the demand centers of Europe and Asia, having a storage capacity of about 60 million barrels, potentially filled with Libyan and West African crude with only a short passage to the energy-hungry U.S. eastern seaboard.
The agreement by Saudi-led OPEC+ to reduce oil output by 2 million barrels per day from global markets comes just two months before the price ceiling goes into effect. Putin and his expensive and sputtering military campaign in Ukraine greatly benefit from this decision. The most pressing concern is how this move, undoubtedly led and enabled by the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) led Saudi government, will affect U.S. foreign policy and its larger connections in the area. The Saudis appear blatantly indifferent about the adverse reaction they will receive in the United States if they publicly endorse Putin and Russia's geopolitical aims. In my opinion, having been at the helm of the global game not nearly long enough, MBS's course of action has real political risks, not the least of which being the renewal of the perennial NOPEC bill in Congress, which would possibly end OPEC's sovereign immunity and open the door to anti-trust lawsuits.
Let us not forget who initially built Aramco at the end of WWII…American taxpayers invested significantly in its inception. On Valentine's Day, 1945, President Franklin D. Roosevelt met with Saudi King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud on an American cruiser, the USS Quincy, in the Suez Canal. It was the dawn of what is now the longest U.S. relationship with an Arab state. Today the relationship is in decline, perhaps terminally, and needs recasting, which begs the question—from which side are changes required. President Biden's strategy with the Saudi government is diametrically opposed to the one that President Trump embarked when he selected Saudi Arabia as his first international trip where he was received like a king. Trump maintained frequent contact with the crown prince to discuss the formulation of U.S. policy toward Iran and the resolution of the Palestinian issue. Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, who was questionably qualified, established his private equity firm the day after his father left the government and benefited from over $2 billion in investments from the Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund.
Kushner intended to work with Israeli and Gulf businesses and investors to create "an investment corridor" between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Saudi Arabia was purchasing what? My best assumption is that it was in exchange for early access to the President and a commitment to turn a blind eye. MBS, who sanctioned a plan to abduct, kill, and dismember Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi-born journalist with an American O-visa, which is awarded to "individuals of extraordinary ability and achievement," benefited from Kushner's steadfast White House support, deep access to highly classified materials like the CIA's 6:00am presidential brief, and claimed high confidence that the prince could weather the storm of Khashoggi's murder from the soft-landing the Trump White House.
Undoubtedly, these special access services inside the annals of Beltway politico have considerable intrinsic value. Even after Saudi Arabia confirmed the death was planned and the CIA independently decided the prince authorized the murder, then-President Trump continued to protect the de facto Saudi monarch and today continues close ties.
Before the Biden Administration, no American president has severed ties with the Saudi prince apparent, who has often acted as de facto ruler of the nation. However, the current president having decades of international relations experience has stated his desire to marginalize that successor a pariah in both Washington and the rest of the world. Now that the CIA has concluded that MBS authorized the killing, a new chapter in the United States and Saudi Arabia's 76-year friendship has begun. In addition to this historic decision, the State Department has issued visa restrictions on 76 Saudis "believed to have been engaged in threatening dissidents overseas" under the new "Khashoggi ban" instituted in honor of the murdered Saudi journalist with whom I was personally familiar.
To maintain some semblance of contact and collaboration between the two administrations, MBS who learned English from playing Grand Theft Auto, was intentionally exempted from the Khashoggi ban or any other consequence. Despite this, he will not likely be welcomed to the White House in the near term. President Biden will exclusively communicate with the official American president's equivalent, MBS’s father King Salman. However, the monarch is 85 years old and in poor health. Biden is rumored to be considering cutting off all contact with the future Saudi monarchy if King Salman passes away, marking a first for relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia going back to World War II.
A president's connection with the Saudi king has historically been an invaluable factor in determining the nature and direction of bilateral relations. The only high-ranking American official permitted to communicate with MBS; also minister of defense is his counterpart U.S. Secretary of Defense General Lloyd Austin III. How this stalemate amongst top House of Saud officials will affect Mohammed's inevitable succession to the throne remains to be seen. The crown prince enjoys widespread support among Saudi youth, the majority demographic, but his brutal rise to power at the expense of his predecessors has earned him the enmity of many princes of higher status. It appears he has chosen a new ally in Putin.
Numerous factors may have contributed to Saudi Arabia's decision to abandon its shaky relationship with the United States in favor of Russia. Instability in the energy market and the energy transition are two of these issues, and Saudi Arabia erroneously thinks it will be in its best interest to cooperate with Russia, which is still one of the world's top producers of crude oil, for years, if not decades. The problem with this way of thinking is that it ignores the fact that the Saudi government has not only enraged officials in Washington and throughout the Western Alliance but has also made the already severe problems with the world's energy supply—especially in countries with low and moderate incomes—far worse.
The Saudis' choice to support Russia's interests comes at a precarious time and appears shortsighted in the overall grand scheme of things. Additionally, and probably most importantly, it's possible that cutting ties with the U.S. was not the best strategic move. By making this decision, the Kingdom seems less like a wise and efficient energy market controller and more like a partisan ally of a particular imperialist leader, President Putin, whose geopolitical position may be as insecure as ever. The U.S. alliance has proven resilient in the past, so the Kingdom may feel confident it will do so again. However, it remains to be seen how the shifting sentiments in the White House and Congress toward the Kingdom will affect this assumption. It also remains to be seen whether U.S. Democrats will retain their upper hand in government after the upcoming mid-term elections only days away.
Over the course of his over two decades long years at the helm of post-Soviet Russia, Vladimir Putin has worked tirelessly to reverse the Cold War's outcome by re-establishing Russia's status as a global great power, consolidating the Kremlin's control over the remnants of the Soviet Union, and countering the burgeoning influence of the United States and expanding NATO. The reality today is that President Putin is a highly trained ex-KGB, orthodox Stasi enforcer officer who possesses the intelligence and skills to execute cunning and far-sighted plans. With a widely seen high-five slap and a handshake five years ago in Argentina with the Saudi Arabian Crown Prince, he likely set his long-held dreams in motion in concert with Xi's new China reform to end global western domination. Today, while waging war in Ukraine, Putin's Russia is deeply committed to executing the strategy of encircling the EU with controls over energy flow. It includes the areas of the Bosporus Strait, Baltic Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, Crimea in the Black Sea, the Chechnya pass, and now more aggressively the western Mediterranean to control Libya's vast oil and gas reserves right underneath Italy, France, Spain, and the U.K.
A proactive policy of Mediterranean Energy Security should be of paramount urgency to the Western Alliance if Europe is to survive the effects of the Cabal. Should the three Mediterranean geoeconomic influencing nations of the U.K., France, and Italy once again fail to act proactively, the fate of Europe’s operating norms is at risk of premature foreclosure and NATO could be the low-hanging fruit in the Russian crosshairs. To put it simple terms; if Libya’s vast resources are lost to Russian hands, Europe’s current cohesive unity is lost, which may have serious implications economically and militarily in world markets. It will require a single decisive collective act to advance the defense, but the U.S., U.K., France, and Italy collectively have the capability and grit to jump out in front of the cabal.
~ Christopher Harriman, President and CEO - Brightside Industries Group, LLC
~ Anne Charman, Vice President Market Research - Brightside Industries Group, LLC
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